Dear IT Crew,
I am no longer a student at the school, but I wish to continue my occasional blogging here. I realise it is standard procedure to burn student records and dance around the fire delete inactive accounts, but I hope you may spare mine from the culling.
04priddeyj
Dash to the front.
edited and removed by 04priddeyj
Fancy Zacharova at a huge price, plus Flintoff and Nozic.
With little tickles on each of these, we’re in the money if one of them comes in.
I’ll be blunt.
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Master Medic to sneak into the places at big odds.
Also Pepe Simo e/w in the Christmas Hurdle and Freeze Up to win at Wincanton.
You were warned
No time to write up an explanation today, but my selections for the big race at Cheltenham are:
Chapoturgeon
Razor Royale
As the coastguard move quickly in these waters, I may need some advice as to whether this sort of content escapes the chop.
Anyway, I am the owner of one ante-post voucher, upon which is my idea of the World Cup winners. They’re in Group C. I got 66/1 shortly after the Confederations Cup final.
Many ‘experts’ are rubbishing the form of the Confederations Cup as an insignificant tournament, where many of European teams were knackered from a hard season. Nevertheless, after an indifferent start, the USA were an impressive side – completely outplaying an Iniesta-less Spain in the semi-finals.
They also produced a sublime first half against Brazil, even catching the gurus of the counter-attack on the break! Without captain Bradley (suspended) they eventually caved and went down 3-2, still a very good effort in a hot competition.
Major League Soccer, horrifically-named as it is, is steadily improving. David Beckham remains LA Galaxy’s star attraction but the likes of Landon Donovan (Everton are interested in a loan) make sure it is not a one-man team. USA have a proud record of progressing from the group stages at major tournaments at least.
With recent form and major tournament pedigree assured, the only factor to consider is the draw. Perennial underachievers England have a no-nonsense coach this time – and, personally, I get more confidence from Don Fabio than the likes of Sven. I still fancy USA to rough them up, maybe sneaking a draw with their combative pressing style of play. Victories over Algeria and Slovenia are taken for granted.
Then there is a possible match with a weak Germany!
By no means are the USA a confident selection, but sport betting is often about value. A small investment on the overpriced Yanks at 66/1 thus represents a success. Sorry if I’m not very patriotic this year!
“Conclusion: TWIST MAGIC for the win at his favourite track. The main dangers are Well Chief given a strong pace and Big Zeb given a clean round of jumping.”
Well, I hope everyone had the savings on that!
Following Twist Magic’s convincing victory over Forpadydeplasterer in the Tingle Creek this afternoon, there were a raft of quotes for the Champion Chase. You wouldn’t normally say this of a horse who just ground an Arkle winner into the mud, but anyone who takes 10/1 for Cheltenham needs their head examined!
Twist Magic is a creature of habit. His best performances have all been at Sandown and, given his favourite place, he is a match even for his stablemate Master Minded.
Forced to make his own pace as the others showed a reluctance to seize the initiative, Ruby Walsh was the embodiment of positivity. At first he booted Twist Magic into the testing Railway Fences but it was scarcely necessary. Twist Magic consistently came up out of his hands and enjoyed the freedom of an uncontested lead. The race was over from the Pond Fence. Forpadydeplasterer was flat-out a long way back in second while Well Chief failed to overcome the added burden of Father Time on his back. Big Zeb, predictably, didn’t jump with enough fluency and Mahogany Blaze wasn’t good enough.
Twist Magic was either tiring in the mire or idling after the final fence but he was entitled to be weary after such a superlative round of jumping.
It seems likely that he will go to Cheltenham for the Champion Chase in March, where he has had so many bad experiences in the past. He has appeared to hate the place as Nick Griffin would hate to be lost in inner-city Bradford on a dark night!
The Celebration Chase back at Sandown in April would be the obvious target. If Paul Nicholls wishes to strike while the iron is hot, perhaps the Game Spirit would be a viable option in the New Year. Twist Magic hasn’t tried Newbury before so the new challenge might appeal to his better nature.
Whatever: Twist Magic has paid for my Christmas betting bank!
Twist Magic and Ruby Walsh in total control at The Pond Fence
Twist Magic (2007 Maghull, 2007 Tingle Creek, 2008 Kerrygold Champion Chase)
Big Zeb – who would have beaten Master Minded but for belting the final fence in Ireland last season
Beside all that is the spectacle of a fast-run race at Sandown where the Railway Fences put horses under pressure with jumping at speed. Rhythm is key.
Here is my horse-by-horse analysis as we try to find the winner.
Jumping again let him down in the heat of battle at the last fence in the Kerrygold at Punchestown last season. When alongside Master Minded, he belted the last and allowed the champion to wangle it by a head. It has since emerged that Master Minded was below his best so it is unwise to take that form at face value. Barry Gerraghty has been booked to ride. Gerraghty – that demon-faced hero who nursed the idle genius Moscow Flyer to two Tingle Creeks knows a thing or two about getting iffy jumpers around Sandown.
All the same, I couldn’t trust a lunkhead like Big Zeb with my money here. He has strong claims on form but 6/4 is not good value with all things considered.
Forpadydeplasterer has been described as ‘tripless’ before. When he won the Arkle people were quick to discount that and brand him as a genuine two-miler. I disagree. Apart from that big success he has tended to find one too good over a variety of distances on soft ground in Ireland. The vigourously-ridden Herecomesthetruth was the latest to outpoint him in a finish.
I predict that AP McCoy will set a strong pace on this sound jumper to negate the sharpness of the track and use his assets to best advantage. I feel that his Arkle was a poor renewal, however, and more out-and-out two milers will have his measure.
In over a season at the top level, Mahogany Blaze has done nothing to suggest that he has any chance of winning this. With blinkers re-applied he ran a fair second from level weights against Well Chief and a crocked Master Minded at Cheltenham latest. That was probably slightly improved form but it would be a major disappointment if he could win here.
Twist Magic is a quirky beast. Sometimes he doesn’t want to race, he plants himself, jumps badly, empties quickly, generally takes the mick out of his jockey. Three bad experiences at Cheltenham were probably responsible for that.
Take him to Sandown and he is angelic. In 2007 he was ‘the next big thing’ and favourite for the Champion Chase after swatting away Voy Por Ustedes in that year’s Tingle Creek. The wheels fell off thereafter until the 2008 Tingle Creek. The champion Master Minded was in front, albeit niggled, while Twist Magic was tanking hard on the steel. The downhill second-last fence – that great leveller in races at Sandown – caught Twister out though. He took a pearler of a fall on the neck and was lucky to get up.
I maintain that he would have won that day. After looking sour following that race he bounced back by taking the Celebration Chase at his favourite course in the spring. Quite simply, if he runs his usual Sandown race, he wins.
A lot of water has passed under the bridge since then and ‘the young horse’ is almost eleven now. His injuries have kept the milometer down though and Well Chief’s comeback in the 2009 Champion Chase reduced many hardened fans to tears. As Master Minded bounded up the hill, the eye was drawn to the white-faced chestnut under the whip, with head down, running-on to take second. He got a bigger cheer than the winner as they unsaddled.
Even better, Well Chief lowered Master Minded’s colours in the Connaught Chase last month, albeit getting 10lbs from a horse with a problem. Many point to Mahogany Blaze’s proximity close behind but Well Chief has never been a horse to win by far. Can he still be as good as was? He will need Forpadydeplasterer to set a strong pace. I think he is a big player.
So Well Chief humbled Master Minded at Cheltenham today!
It was heartwarming to see the old favourite record his first win since 2007 against the current champion chaser.
Well Chief, described by his trainer David Pipe as a horse with “legs of glass” has been the most unfortunate horse of recent years. At his peak in the 2004-2006 “golden era” of Moscow Flyer and Azertyuiop, he ran many fabulous races in defeat. He was one of the players in that never-to-be forgotten Tingle Creek of 2005, provoking a deafening roar from the stands as he loomed up behind Moscow Flyer on the home turn. Well Chief was also a worthy runner-up to Moscow Flyer in the Champion Chase of the following year.
Injuries and misfortune have limited Well Chief to only five runs since that day at Cheltenham. Average Champion Chases have passed by while he sat healing in his horsebox. As a ten-year-old he made one of the great sporting comebacks last March. After more than seven hundred days away from the track he claimed second to Master Minded in the Champion Chase, getting a louder cheer than the winner on the way back.
If Well Chief was ever going to beat the current champion, today was to be the day. They met in the Connaught Chase at Cheltenham with Master Minded giving Well Chief 10lbs. In the event, Master Minded seemed ill-at-ease from halfway – hanging badly away from the rail throughout. Well Chief pounced on the opportunity with a fluent round of jumping and showed pleasing acceleration to scoot to victory up the hill. Master Minded had to settle for third behind Mahogany Blaze.
As they did in March the Cheltenham faithful showed hearty appreciation for Well Chief as he walked in to be unsaddled. The crowd was 10-deep around the Winners Enclosure, bellowing out a reception Kauto Star would struggle to match.
What now for the two horses?
Some may feel that this was Well Chief’s day. He won’t receive 10lbs from Master Minded in March, nor the new challengers Big Zeb, Petit Robin and Planet Of Sound. If he gets there for a swansong, Well Chief will be eleven. Even the mighty Moscow Flyer couldn’t win it at that age.
The Tingle Creek in a fortnight is another option but some time between races must be crucial for him nowadays. Even the King George at Christmas has been mentioned, despite Well Chief having failed to last three miles in the past.
Master Minded looked very uncomfortable. Maybe it was the soft ground or a niggling injury but his place in the Tingle Creek entries must be in doubt now.
Let’s see what happens!
